This One's For Nick

Category: Top Prospects 2012

September 3, 2012

Right-handers of Savannah, with Baseball America’s Jim Callis

(From left to right) Fulmer, Montero, Tapia, Verrett, Pill (milb.com)

The Savannah Sand Gnats are a perfect example of old versus new. Some of prospects are thanks to former New York Mets GM Omar Minaya’s, such as right-handed pitcher Domingo Tapia, who excelled at low-A Savannah. even Montero finding much success at High-A St. Lucie. On the other hand, the new regime came in and asserted their new players. Now general manager Sandy Alderson included pitchers like Tyler Pill and Logan Verrett, two 2011 draftees who both excelled at the level. Alderson upped the international market by signing Rafael Montero, who showed maturity beyond his years. And you can’t forget about first-round supplemental pick  Michael Fulmer; he’s the youngest out of the bunch and looks promising as well.

Each pitcher brings something different to the table. One can fall in love with the fastball; your man would be Domingo Tapia. Just 20-years-old, Tapia possesses a mid-90s fastball that has touched 99mph. Some might prefer the guy with the plus slider, somebody like Logan Verrett, who if not for a sub-par junior campaign could have found himself in the 1st round of the 2011 MLB Draft. Then there’s the pitcher that has the perfect arm, contains a deadly slider, fastball, and barely walks anybody. His name is Rafael Montero. And finally, there’s the player that has had the most success, yet questions still linger to whether he can pitcher at the higher levels. That’s the story with 2011 5th-rounder Tyler Pill.

There’s also the guy who lurked in the shadows of Oklahoma prep stars Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley. The Mets first-round supplemental selection Michael Fulmer is continuing to slip under-the-radar, but is he the best out of the core?

Each pitcher brings something different yet all of them have one thing in common: they have all had immense success in Savannah. The only question left is, who’s the best? Every analyst has their preference. Here’s where I’d rank them.

Read the rest of this entry »

2 comments
August 14, 2012

On Reds prospect Billy Hamilton

Billy Hamilton, cincinnati.com

They say speed kills, which in this case, Billy Hamilton is killing everyone. If you haven’t heard of Billy Hamilton, he’s the Cincinnati Reds shortstop prospect, who has 139 stolen bases between High-A and Double-A this season. Those 139 stolen bases are just 6 shy of shattering Vince Coleman’s minor league record of 146, which was set back in 1983. The record is going to be broken sometime this week, but would Hamilton have been here without making adjustments?

I’m not going to include stats, but Hamilton struggled immensely with his approach. Last season, he played for the Dayton Dragons; his first full-season as a full-time switch-hitter. While he struggled in the first-half, he turned his whole prospect status around and now is a legitimate top 35 prospect.

With the Reds in the playoff hunt, it makes sense to call-up Hamilton as a pinch-runner. After this season, questions will flock about his position and if he can hit enough to be an effective major leaguer. But one things for certain, he’s the fastest man in baseball right now and can change the whole culture of a sport.

Today, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick has a feature on Billy Hamilton and the story behind the man. I was lucky enough to speak with Hamilton last season and it’s astonishing how far he has come in his development process. Take a listen here and we’ll see you in September, Billy.

Leave a comment
April 6, 2012

Quick Thoughts on Nomar Mazara’s swing

Joseph Hache (C)

I’m not a scout. I’m not a coach. But anyone who watches baseball or has played knows what a long leg stride means for a hitter. It’s either hit or miss. And at the age of 16, Nomar Mazara and the Texas Rangers should look into eliminating that leg kick he does.

I have seen reports that have said Mazara has 80 raw power. That’s the reason why the Rangers inked him to a 5 million dollar deal in the off-season. And this came as a surprise to everyone. Thanks to Bullpen Banter, we have a cage session of Mazara and an at-bat. Below is the video and my thoughts.

Read the rest of this entry »

Leave a comment
March 12, 2012

Spring Training Notes: March 12, 2012

Pointed Magazine

I’ve been enjoying my week off by watching unhealthy amounts of Spring Training baseball. Along with MLB Network, I purchased MLB 12: The Show. I created a “Road to the Show” character, but gave up into my third season. A .216 batting average wasn’t worthy of a promotion, I guess. So I started playing online today. I won my first game 6-1 in 13 innings. The Detroit Tigers were my team of choice. My opponent: the Miami Marlins. The graphics in the game are crazy, but everything else is pretty hard. I did, however, have 20 K’s with Justin Verlander.

– Staying with the Tigers, left-handed pitcher Andy Oliver continues to impress. Pitching in extended relief, Oliver tossed 4 scoreless innings against the New York Mets today, striking out 2, while only surrendering 1 hit. He’s pitched 7 innings total this Spring Training and deserves, in my opinion, a long look at the 5th starting job in the Tigers rotation. He’s proven he can pitch in the minors, however, he needs a chance to stick in the majors, rather than being used as a spot starter for Detroit. He’s an interesting piece for fantasy as well because he racks up K’s and can eat innings.

– Colorado Rockies catching prospect Wilin Rosario had a huge day at the plate today. The Rockies defeated the San Diego Padres, 11-2. Rosario went 2-4 with a homerun and 4 RBI. I’ve been a fan of Rosario for a while now. He’s currently battling for the backup job behind Ramon Hernandez, but he can easily steal the role from Hernandez due to Ramon’s health concerns. I have Rosario on my fantasy keeper league and he’s staying put for the time being. He can potentially become a fantasy monster at the catcher position.

– Finally, the Washington Nationals squared off against the St. Louis Cardinals today. Washington won 8-4. There’s a few things that should be noticed. With Albert Pujols leaving St. Louis, manager Mike Matheny is looking for someone to replace both Pujols fielding, and his bat. One option is Matt Adams. the 23-year-old slugged 32 homeruns in Double-A Springfield, while driving in 101 runs. His bat makes him valuable and looks to certainly fill the void left by Pujols. He’s been having a nice spring, but depending on what the Cardinals decide to do with Lance Berkman, he may not start out in the majors.

One of my favorite utility men is Matt Carpenter. He’s got a great story too, if you ever want to look into it. Carpenter went 3-4 today and is now batting over .300 in ST. He deserves a spot on the roster, mainly because he can play everywhere. Who knows, maybe he can become the next David Freese.

Moving to the ‘Nats, TCU alum Matt Purke picked up the win in relief. The 2011 draft pick is considered one of the Nationals top prospects, pending if he can prove he’s healthy. He was once drafted in the first round by the Texas Rangers, but did not sign. After batting injuries in his junior campaign at TCU, Purke’s stock crashed faster than Enron. He’s 1-0 this spring with a 2.70 ERA. I expect him to start at High-A, but he will be closely monitored.

1 comment
March 11, 2012

Quick Hits with Jason Parks; about Ronald Guzman and Wagner Mateo

Courtesy: Baseball News Hound

The Latin American prospects intrigue me for two reasons. 1. The skys the limit. These prospects are always nabbed with having huge ceilings. It all depends on the right organization and how they develop them. The second reason is you can grow a personal (well, not so personal) bond with them, by just following their progression in the minors.

I emailed Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus and Texas Farm Review, who answered two questions regarding Texas Rangers slugger Ronald Guzman, and Arizona Diamondbacks prospect Wagner Mateo.

Starting with Ronald Guzman, he’s a sweet swinging left-handed bat, who has HUGE power potential. I’ve attached a video of his cage performance. Here’s what Parks had to say:

“Guzman could be a monster, with a swing similar to Eric Hosmer in the sense that he doesn’t power up and look for the long ball. His swing is measured and balanced, with contact first. He shows the ability to drive the ball with authority, and the ball just naturally explodes off the bat. I think he has a chance to be a superstar. 60+ future bat; 70+ future power. “

Bill Mitchell

Bill Mitchell

Moving onto Wagner Mateo, I was/am a huge fan of Mateo. I believed when he was being hyped that he was the real deal. Also, I find it unjustifiable to write off Dominican prospects. Many of these athletes never played organized baseball, so it’s all about becoming comfortable to your environment. However, his stats from last season were pretty head shaking, and have me second guessing myself.

Mateo has a major strike out issue that needs to be addressed. He whiffed 88 times in just 230 at-bats. This could be a part of why the Cardinals voided his contract. Mateo failed a physical with the St. Louis Cardinals, who originally signed him in 2009, because of an unknown eye issue. He’s only 18 years-old, however, he needs to take a huge step forward this season to remind people of what he was signed for. Jason Parks had this to say:

“I’ve seen Mateo a bunch, and it’s just not very pretty. I know scouts that saw him as an amateur and he was just awesome. If the eye is still an issue, it would make sense; he struggles with basic contact at the plate and his routes in the outfield are bad. It could be a number of factors, though. Based on what I’ve seen, he looks like a good candidate to never escape short-season ball.”

What are your thoughts about Guzman and Mateo?

Leave a comment
January 14, 2012

Breaking down the Pineda/Montero deal; Mariners 2013 projected lineup

The New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners did an old-fashioned trade Friday. Trade your best prospect for my best prospect; oh and pour some sprinkles on top. The result: the Yankees send top prospect (and best hitting prospect) Jesus Montero to the Seattle Mariners for 22 year-old top prospect/proven starting pitcher Michael Pineda. The sprinkles of the trade are Jose Campos, who the Yankees acquire, and Hector Noesi, who the Mariners steal from the Yankees. The winner of the trade? The Mariners (for now).

For those not familiar with either prospect, Michael Pineda took the baseball world by storm with his electric fastball and improving secondary material. Pineda held the Mariners together while Felix Hernandez struggled to find his old stuff. However, let’s take a look at what happened to Pineda near the end of the season:

5.42 ERA against 0.500+ Teams
5.12 ERA in second half
4.40 RA on the road

14.54 ERA against the Red Sox
12.60 ERA against the Angels
5.56 ERA against the Tigers
4.74 ERA against the Rangers
2.19 ERA against the Rays

Against playoff teams, Pineda struggled. The American League East is a completely different monster than the AL West. New York is completely different from Seattle. So for Pineda, you are replacing a prospect in Montero, who Yankees fans have been waiting for, whom they dreamed would take over for Jorge Posada. Do I think he can find success? Yes he can. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he completely chokes as well.

The Yankees also acquire a very intriguing piece in Jose Campos. Campos, 19, fits your atypical mold for a Seattle Mariners prospect. He’s big (6’4”) and is pretty much a clone of Pineda and King Felix. As an 18 year-old in Short-season Everett, Campos showed brilliance and dominance. The right-hander went 5-5 with a 2.32 ERA in 14 starts. More impressively, he struck out 85 in 81.1 innings of work, while just walking 13. The Mariners clearly had him on the fast track, so it’ll be interesting to see what the Yankees decide because they usually take time with their pitching prospects.

Now moving to the Mariners haul. The reason why the Mariners win this deal right now is because they have two MLB ready talents. You don’t even need me to introduce Jesus Montero. He’s been the most talked about prospect in the Yankees system since Drew Henson (just kidding). Montero will most likely not stay at catcher. On the Yankees, he had nowhere to go because of Mark Teixeria blocking at first base. So if he were to play in pinstripes, Montero would be stuck as a DH. However, the Yankees use the DH as a resting mechanism for their players. So would Montero have been able to see 150 games a season? Probably not.

However, since he is now in Seattle, Montero becomes the immediate option behind the dish. In 69 at-bats in New York, Montero hit .328 with 4 homeruns and 12 RBI. The average won’t stay that high. I think he’ll be a .280 hitter like he’s been in the minors but the small power sample is a glimpse into the future. He can drive in 30 homeruns and will be given a chance to play everyday. And who knows? Maybe the Mariners will have their next great designated hitter, replacing the shoes of HOF to be Edgar Martinez.

Hector Noesi came out of the Yankees bullpen in 2011. If you remember, he pitched I think 6 scoreless innings in Baltimore in his first MLB appearance, all out of the bullpen. Noesi had success in pinstripes last season. The major concern for him his control. He walked 22 in just 56.1 innings. Noesi can step in right away and be the number 3/4/5 starter, depending on where the Mariners want to use him.

Now looking at the Seattle Mariners, their team just got a little bit better with Montero. Losing Pineda is going to hurt, but the Mariners are getting hitting. With a system already slim on quality hitting prospects, the Mariners have a surplus of pitching. The Mariners have Taijuan Walker, who was a draft pick from 2010. He’s projected to be a true number one starter depending on health and development. Then you can add Daniel Hutlzen, the 2nd overall pick in the 2011 draft. Hultzen is very close the majors and won’t require much time in the minors. He could be a fast mover like the Colorado Rockies Drew Pomeranz. Add James Paxton and you have a pretty solid future.

So here’s the line up for the 2013 Seattle Mariners. I am pretty much disregarding the 2012 season because it could be a train wreck like 2011. Depending if the Mariners can land Prince Fielder, Justin Smoak will still (barely) be manning first base.

Projected 2013 Lineup:

1. Ichiro, RF – No brainer. Unless he retires.

2. Dustin Ackley, 2B – Maybe Ackley can develop some power this year. 20 homeruns isn’t out of the question. If he develops that, he could move to the 3 hole.

3. Jesus Montero, C – You could slot him at 4, but who knows.

4. Justin Smoak, 1B – Yup…for now.

5. Alex Liddi, 3B – The Italian Stallion can hit for power and should stick at third.

6. Mike Carp, DH – Once a Mets top prospect, over hyped but can swing the bat.

7. Trayvon Robinson, OF – Maybe he can turn his career around? You could easily see Carlos Peguero here.

8. Franklin Gutierrez, CF – Glove, glove, glove!

9. Nick Franklin, SS – He can hit, but he’ll be young when he’s up. So he could be anywhere in this lineup, depending on managements confidence.

Rotation:

1. Felix Hernandez, RHP – I do not think he’ll ever leave Seattle. He means too much to this organization and should stay around.

2. Tajuan Walker, RHP – Flamethrower. This is aggressive but you never know.

3. Danny Hutlzen, LHP – He’s polished and won’t need much time. He’s not going to be a 1/2 , but still can be effective.

4. Mauricio Robles, LHP – He’s just as good as Pineda. Needs to stay healthy.

5. Hector Noesi/Charlie Furbush/James Paxton/Blake Beaven/Whoever – Yep.

Closer: Chance Ruffin, RHP.

I conclude that the Mariners can really benefit from this trade. They have the piece in the minors that will help this team compete.

Leave a comment
January 13, 2012

More about Fernando Martinez


Over at Mets Today, I wrote a small piece about Fernando Martinez. The main point of the entry was to focus all my frustration with what Fernando Martinez has become. A once highly touted prospect, Martinez has now become rust, or as I said it, “an old Christmas gift”. There are a few comments about how the Mets are not the only organization that has overhyped prospects that mount to anything. Sure, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are an example. You can look at two “future third-basemen” in Dallas McPherson and most recently Brandon Wood.

But the problem as I see it is that it happens too frequently with the Mets. I listed in the piece the names of Alex Escobar, Alex Ochoa, and Lastings Milledge. Escobar and Ochoa are a little before my time (I was in elementary school back then), but Lastings Milledge was my first real letdown, when it comes to prospects. And now, I followed the rise and fall of the 5-tool that become an empty toolbox. I really wish Fernando Martinez finds himself and haunts the Mets for years to come. I really do. But it probably won’t happen. Do I think it’s worth knocking him off the 40-man for the likes of Scott Hairston? No. But was it necessary? Yes.

Part of the reason is that Martinez is an old name in New York that just about every Mets fan is sick of, including myself. This now brings to light a light to what I really want to rant about. The Mets organization in general. First of all, I believe in GM Sandy Alderson and I believe in manager Terry Collins. I really feel that Alderson can field a team in a 2-3 years that can be highly competitive. I’ve faced the fact that the Mets are not the Yankees; they will never be able to be the Yankees. I believe in Alderson’s approach with growing the minors from the ground up. His 2011 draft was a breath of fresh air. Brandon Nimmo could be another 5-tool player. But this will be the first real “5-tool player” under Alderson’s eye.

But there’s the case of shortstop/soon to be outfielder Wilmer Flores. He was once compared to Miguel Cabrera. Now he’s quickly losing his prospect status, despite being just 21 years-old. And another personal favorite of mine, Cesar Puello, might fall into the same category. Call it mismanagement, but in the eyes of ‘prospectors’, it’s a laughable case of the Mets organization. And quite frankly, it’s becoming tiring.

1 comment
December 24, 2011

2012 Top Prospects: Oakland Athletics

After a series of trades, which included All-Star pitchers Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill; the Oakland Athletics are rebuilding…again. It’s probably a term that A’s fans are sick of hearing. After having a promising farm system that included Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, the A’s are destined for a mediocre season.

General Manager Billy Beane better hope these prospects pan out, or his job will be on the line.

1. Jarrod Parker, RHP – Pretty much the only useful piece out of the Trevor Cahill deal. Parker is ace material. His Tommy John hasn’t held hm back at all, however, he is now 23-years-old; the same age as Trevor Cahill (who has already made a name for himself). I feel that for the A’s franchise, he must be in the rotation in 2012. He proved himself during big games when he was called up in September. The Diamondbacks included him on their postseason roster, which shows where they feel he belongs.

2. A.J. Cole, RHP – Probably my favorite prospect in all of baseball. I was heartbroken to see Cole traded to the A’s in the Gonzalez deal. However, he could be a huge piece to their future if everything goes right. He had a great debut and will start in High-A. I expect him to stay there the entire season. He’s pretty much the main piece in the deal.

3. Sonny Gray, RHP – Dominated at Vanderbilt. 2011 1st round pick, his stock dropped a bit. I think he will wind up in Oakland by the end of the season. He should start in Double-A and cruise from there. Potential 3-4 starter.

4. Michael Choice, OF – Huge power numbers in High-A, but it was in the California atmosphere. Also, he must cut back on his strikeouts. At this point, he’s going to start at Double-A and I feel that his swing will be exposed. This could really, really hurt the A’s.

5. Derek Norris, C – Uh…. At this point, it’s power or nothing. He’s getting too old, but still can be a good MLB catcher. Will he have a Mesoraco breakout year? He figures to be the catcher of the future, even though I’d prefer Kurt Suzuki.

6. Brad Peacock, RHP – Another piece in the Gio deal, he’s going to be in the rotation in 2012. His blazing fastball and change up combination reminds me of Tim Hudson. Yes, I said it. I really think Peacock has a nice major league career ahead of him.

7. Collin Cowgill, OF – I felt that the Diamondbacks really didn’t give up anything to get Cahill. Cowgill was a part of it. He’s a fourth-outfielder in my book.

8. Grant Green, OF/SS/??? – He’s biggest flaw is he has no position at this point. And his power seemed to disappear. So who knows anymore.

9. B.A. Vollmuth, 3B – One of my favorite college players last year. His season didn’t go the way it should have. I hink the A’s got a steal here.

Leave a comment
December 22, 2011

2012 Top Prospects: Chicago Cubs

I have a friend who’s a Chicago Cubs fan. Enough said. However, a new regime gives the Cubbie faithful a new chance. However, they might have to wait a few years.

1. Javier Baez, SS – A first round selection, I think he’ll eventually force Starlin Castro out of short.

2. Brett Jackson, OF – He had a disappointing in Double A and then turned it around in Triple-A. Weird how things work out. With an outfield full of questions, Jackson has a shot of making the team right out of Spring Training. I feel like he’s ready.

3. Trey McNutt, RHP – Didn’t have the year people were expecting. He’s good but he still needs time. Expect him to repeat Double A this season. Depending on how well he adjusts, he could get a cup of coffee in September.

4. Dillon Maples, RHP – A high profile pitcher, the Cubs stole him in the draft. He needs pro data but he could really put himself on the map with a strong performance this season.

5. Chris Carpenter, RHP – Man, I’ve had high hopes for Carpenter. Every year, he’s one step from the majors. Yet he always regresses. I really don’t know what to say about him anymore. I want to believe he can start but he lacks command. But he still can be a very dangerous reliever.

6. Matt Szczur, OF – Really raw still. This will be his second season solely focusing on baseball. It’s also a big year.

7. Dan Vogelbach, 1B – He’s huge. He’s quick. Think of Prince Fielder.

8. Tony Zych, RHP – Remains to be seen if he’ll be a reliever or starter. Hard thrower. One of my favorites from the 2011 draft.

9. Aaron Kurcz, RHP – Another player who’s been splitting time between starting and relieving. He can be a very, very good reliever. I think it’s realistic to say he can make the majors in 2012, if he stays in the pen.

Missing: Josh Vitters (Well…), Robbie Whitenack (If he didn’t get hurt, he’d be in the top 3).

Leave a comment
December 9, 2011

Making sense out of the Cubs/Rockies trade

So after today’s crazy events, with Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson signing with the Los Angeles Angels of Anheim, the Chicago Cubs and the Colorado Rockies made a trade! If the trade was made 2 years ago, it would have been the talk of the day. The Chicago Cubs sent unreliable outfielder Tyler Colvin and second basemen D.J. Lemahieu to the Colorado Rockies for not so sexy Ian Stewart and Casey Weathers.

On paper, it looks like the Rockies got the better deal. Wrong. The Cubs got the better deal. Third basemen Ian Stewart is coming off a terrible season and needed a change of scenery, as did Colvin. Except Stewart has untapped power that might be found in Wrigley. Also, by trading for Stewart, this gives the Cubs a short-term plan at third base. With former top prospect Josh Vitters finally banging on the door at third, Stewart provides support at the MLB level while the Cubs wait (and keep waiting) for Vitters to prove he was worthy of a first round selection.

To the other players, Lemahieu isn’t going to be that player scouts and experts thought he was going to be out of LSU. He’s a rotatable infielder who reminds me of Clint Barmes. As for Casey Weathers, the Cubs might have got a really nice pitcher. The 26-year-old has had an injury stricken career, having Tommy John surgery shortly after turning pro. People are the league know he throws over 95 MPH, however he cannot control it. If Marmol doesn’t pitch well again, he could be an answer depending if he can control his pitches.

Leave a comment
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 195 other followers